Work backwards from the layout
Find the widest the image can ever be displayed in your design, then double it for high-density screens. That doubled figure is your target width, and everything else follows from it.
An image in an 800-pixel content column needs 1600 pixels. A hero that spans a 1440-pixel viewport needs 2560 at most. A 200-pixel thumbnail needs 400.
Doubling is the sensible ceiling. A 3× file costs roughly twice as much as a 2× file and is essentially indistinguishable, because at that density the limiting factor is your eye rather than the screen.